PAKISTANI NUKES - AT 2:32 P.M. ET:  Rowan Scarborough, now reporting for Fox News, has a superb story on what the U.S. plans to do if Pakistan falls to Al Qaeda or the Taliban.  This is required reading, for the issue is one of the most serious that we face.  If you get the sense of wishful thinking here, you're not alone:

The United States has a detailed plan for infiltrating Pakistan and securing its mobile arsenal of nuclear warheads if it appears the country is about to fall under the control of the Taliban, Al Qaeda or other Islamic extremists.

American intelligence sources say the operation would be conducted by Joint Special Operations Command, the super-secret commando unit headquartered at Fort Bragg, N.C.

And...

"Small units could seize them, disable them and then centralize them in a secure location," the source said.

A secret Defense Intelligence Agency document first disclosed in 2004 said Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal of 35 weapons. The document said it plans to more than double the arsenal by 2020.

And...

What makes the Pakistan mission especially difficult is that the military has its missiles on Soviet-style mobile launchers and rail lines. U.S. intelligence agencies, using satellite photos and communication intercepts, is constantly monitoring their whereabouts. Other warheads are kept in storage. U.S. technical experts have visited Pakistan to advise the government on how to maintain and protect its arsenal.

Also, there are rogue elements inside Pakistan's military and intelligence service who could quickly side with the extremists and make JSOC's mission all the more difficult.

COMMENT:  It's good, of course, that we're preparing for this.  It's good that the Obama administration hasn't, apparently, interfered with the planning, and supports it.  But you don't have to be a military genius to realize the risks, and the statistical possibilities of failure.  Securing Pakistani nukes means securing all of them - a one hundred percent success rate.  If two or three are missed, the potential for catastrophe somewhere in the world, including American cities, is extreme.  A nuclear device doesn't have to be put on a missile or a plane.  It simply needs to be sailed into an American harbor in the hold of a freighter, and set off by suicidal Islamists who are part of the crew. 

We've urged readers before to watch Pakistan closely.  It may be the biggest story of the year.

May 14, 2009